Qualitative Analysis of TVET in YEM countries
This section aims to analyze various aspects of TVET in YEM countries.
Skill anticipation in countries
Most of MENA countries under analysis lack sophisticated mechanisms to collect, identify and evaluate labour market data in order to anticipate skill requirements of the productive sector. In this respect, Libya and Lebanon do not have Labour Market Information Systems (LMIS) that systematically collect labour market data and Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria and Palestine have weak job-matching services and labour market information systems (Ghneim, 2018; ILO, 2015; ETF, 2014; Bardak, 2014). Moreover, cooperation between the public, private and education sector to anticipate skills, design programmes and update curricula are insufficient or absent. In the case of Jordan and Lebanon, there is a weak involvement of employers in apprenticeship training programmes (Ghneim, 2018; Rawashdeh, 2018).
Among the main programmes to anticipate skills in the countries under analysis are (ETF, 2019; ETF, 2019a; ETF, 2019b; ETF, 2019c; ETF, 2019d; ETF, 2019e):
- Israel: National Strategy for Technological Education 2018‒22 and National Qualifications Framework
- Jordan: National Employment and Empowerment Programme (2017‒21)
- Lebanon: National Strategic Framework for TVET 2018–22 and Strategy on Youth Morocco: National Employment Strategy of 2015 and Labour Market Observatory
- Palestine: National Strategic Comprehensive Programme for Employment (2015–20) and National Strategy for Adult Learning (2016)
- Tunisia: National Observatory on Employment and Skills and IRADA (Initiative Régionale d'Appui au Développement Durable - Regional Initiative to Support Sustainable Development).
Opportunities and challenges
Across MENA region, middle-skilled jobs and high skilled jobs (FN) account for 66% and 21% of all formal jobs (World Economic Forum, 2017). The low level of high quality jobs is common across countries of the region and elementary occupations and low-skilled labour demand remain very significant. In this sense, the share of low-skilled labour force is 75% of adults in Morocco, 68% in Algeria, about 66% in Tunisia and 50% in Jordan (ETF, 2020).
In addition, as the ETF (2020) reports, 20% of workers in Palestine and Tunisia are employed in elementary occupations. In contrast, Israel has a job structure more inclined towards high-skilled jobs: more than half of the Israeli workforce are employed in high-skilled occupations and the country demands many jobs that require high-level skills, while demand for elementary low-skilled occupations is low (ETF, 2019a).
(FN) Examples of middle skilled jobs are electrician, dental hygienist, personal care aids, among others and for highly skilled jobs are commercial bankers, corporate finance specialists and accountants, school teachers and academics, engineers, quality assurance professionals and information technology consultants
High levels of youth unemployment, even increasing with level of education
With the exception of Israel, unemployment increases with the level of education in the countries under consideration, which reflects the low level of creation of high-quality jobs:
- Lebanon: the youth unemployment rate is almost 22% among upper secondary graduates and 36% among university graduates (Abou Jaoude, 2015)
- Palestine: the youth unemployment rate is 27% for those who had completed only basic education compared to 43% among tertiary graduates (Sadeq, 2016)
- Algeria: the unemployment rate was 18% among young population with high levels of education and 8% among those with a low level of education (ETF, 2019e)
- Morocco: the unemployment rate for individuals with a university degree is about 20%, compared to an unemployment average rate of 28% (Pereira da Silva, 2017).
Skill forecast insights
As mentioned above, skills forecast hardly take place in the Mena-countries, while some studies provide a view into some more general aspects: According to the Mc Kinsey Global Institute (2021), future jobs in the MENA region will require 41% more critical thinking. Moreover, 77% of job tasks will require science and mathematics skills. Moreover, a survey conducted by Bayt & YouGov (2016) to employers across MENA region revealed that skills such as creative thinking, technology and computer skills and time management are likely to gain importance in the following ten years. According to UNICEF (2019), highly valued skills by the private sector in Jordan are communication, problem-solving and transferrable skills.
Mismatch priority occupations in countries
Qualification mismatch and skill gaps are predominant across MENA countries and are related to the lack of both technical and soft skills, such as creative and independent thinking, problem solving, communication, among graduates and workers. According to Bayt & YouGov (2016), IT jobs are among the top unfilled positions in the region.
According to ILO (2019), qualification mismatch in Palestine mainly corresponds to under qualification of Palestinian workers while in Jordan and Lebanon it is mainly due to over qualification of young graduates. Morocco and Jordan workers also experience qualification mismatch between education level and type of employment: almost 8% and 9% work below their qualification level and 47% and 43% are employed in a job that requires a higher qualification level in Morocco and Jordan, respectively (ETF, 2019d; Barcucci & Mryyan, 2014).
Moreover, there is a shortage of TVET-graduates in many countries, as the potential of TVET is not yet utilized to address the significant demand for medium-skilled workers in the region. Besides, not only the number of graduates but also the skills they acquire during training are not compatible with those demanded by the private sector. In particular, this concerns the lack of relevant and up-to-date practical training and soft skills. According to the literature, this is an issue affecting Palestine, Algeria, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya (Jweiles, 2018; Ghneim, 2018; ETF, 2021; ILO, 2019; ETF, 2019e). Besides, in Tunisia and Lebanon the shortage in TVET graduates and enrolment rates is accompanied with a surplus in university graduates, leading to a labour market mismatch that in some cases such as Lebanon is accompanied with high rate of migration of skilled graduates (GIZ, 2019).
Regarding labour shortage in particular occupations, ETF (2019e) states that there is a particular shortage of skilled labour in the construction sector in Algeria, in occupations such as skilled plumbers, electricians, carpenters. In Lebanon, the agriculture sector suffers from a shortage of labour supply with agribusiness and farm management skills and of highly skilled labourers in quality control and production supervision in food processing companies (ILO, 2015). Moreover, as ILO (2015) claims, in the Lebanese industry there is a shortage in graphic design and technology, maintenance and machine operators as well as different type of technicians. In Palestine, according to Foqahaa (2015), employers reveals that there is a high shortage of technical skills, such as technology and market using media skills, and personal skills, such as communication and interpersonal effectiveness, work ethics, customer oriented skills, integrity, adaptability, among others.
Focus on skills and learning
Overall, there have been significant improvements in access to education across MENA countries. Illiteracy rates have decreased and enrolments rates in secondary, vocational and university degrees have increased, though, in many cases they remain low. Young literacy rates reached 99%, in Palestine and Jordan, 91% in Morocco, and 96% in Tunisia (ETF, 2019c, 2019d, 2019e; UNICEF, 2019; ). However, according to ETF (2019c, 2019d, 2019e, 2019f) data, the labour force structure in Palestine, Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria remains strongly low-skilled: in Morocco, 82% of the adult population had a low level of education, 10.5% a medium level and only 8% a high level. The same occurs in Algeria, where 68% had a low level of education, 19% a medium level of education and only 12% had attained higher education. Palestine and Tunisia show a better performance although the low skilled population remains dominant: in Palestine and Tunisia, respectively, 59% and 56% of the adult population have attained only a low level of education, 16% and 20% have attained a medium level of education and 25%and 22% have attained a high level of education. Israel, on the contrary, has a high-skilled labour force: 56.5% has a high level of education, 34.4% medium-level education and only 9.1% a low level of education (ETF, 2019a).
Moreover, VET enrolment remains very low: only 2% and 0.5% of upper secondary students and lower secondary students follow vocational carriers in Palestine, while it is 6% and 11% in Morocco (ETF, 2019c, 2019d). In Tunisia, the share of young people following VET is 10% and in Jordan, only 14% of secondary student follow a vocational path (ETF, 2019f; Rawashdeh, 2018). The major exception is Israel, where VET enrolment rates are at about 40% in upper secondary education and and 19% in lower secondary education (ETF, 2019a).
Furthermore, among the main challenges that face the education system in the MENA region is the high rate of drop-outs - in particular in Algeria, Palestine, Lebanon and Tunisia (ETF, 2019b; World Bank, 2014; Millani & Mahdjoub, 2017) - and the low quality of education, reflected in under achievements in reading, mathematics and science in PISA in Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and in Israel – though only among Arabic- speaking students (ETF, 2019a, 2019e, 2019f; GIZ, 2013).
Country prospects
Besides the skill mismatch between labour supply and demand, youth labour market transition in MENA countries faces several challenges. In the first instance, there are persistently high unemployment and NEET (not in employment, education or training) rates among the youth, which is much higher for young women, and that coexist with a large informal sector. For instance, in Palestine, 43% of young population aged 20-24 were unemployed in 2017 and, among those employed in the formal sector, 57% had an informal job while 37% worked in the informal sector (Jweiles, 2018). Moreover, according to ETF (2019c),
the rate of unemployment for Palestinian young women reached 70% in 2017. In Jordan, the youth unemployment rate aged 15-24 and youth women unemployment rate reached 35% and 57%, respectively, in 2016 (Rawashdeh, 2018). In Lebanon, the unemployment rate in 2017 was 6% and 16% among the youth aged 15-24, according to ETF (2019b). Furthermore, ILO (2016) states that share of young NEET it was estimated at 14% (23% for women and 6% for men) for the year 2014. The same issues appear in Morocco with a youth unemployment and NEET rate of 23% and 27%, respectively, in 2016 (ETF, 2019d). The country does also present a large gender gap: according to ETF (2019d), the male NEET rate was 12% against a female NEET rate of 44% in 2016. In the case of Libya, youth unemployment rate is estimated at 48% with a large gender gap: 67.9% for young women and 40.9% for young men in 2015 (UNESCO, 2015). Moreover, the informal sector accounts for nearly 40-60% of total employment in 2011 (ETF, 2014). Israel, on the other side, has the lowest rate of youth unemployment among the countries analysed (12%) though it has a high youth NEET rate (16%) (Lurie, 2015).
In the second instance, there is a high pressure of working age population – in particular due to a demographic trend towards a high share of young people in the total population – that contrasts with a low economic growth and low level of job creation. In Algeria, for example, it is expected that half of the population will be aged under 30 years old by 2050, according to (ETF, 2018a). In Libya, young people aged 15-34 represents almost 30% of total population and working age population (people aged 15-64) represents 65% of Libyan society (ETF, 2014).
In the third instance, there is a persistent preference for and dependency on public jobs in many countries of the MENA-region since they offer better work conditions, in terms of salary, social security and stability, than private sector. However, the capability of the public sector to create new jobs and respond to the increasing labour supply is very limited. This problematic affects particularly labour market in Palestine; Lebanon, Libya and Algeria (ILO, 2015, 2016; World Bank, 2015; UNESCO, 2015).
Focus on sectors
The importance of each economic sector in terms of value added and employment differs across MENA countries. Overall, there is a tendency towards an increasing importance of the service sector – not only in light of the GDP but also employment, while the relevance of the industry as well as the agriculture sector declines. For instance, in Lebanon, the services sector accounts for 80% of the gross national product (GNP) in 2016, followed by the industrial sector (14%) and the agriculture sector (6%) (ETF, 2019b). Similarly in Lebanon, where the service sector is the most significant since it employed 76% of workforce in 2012. Agricultural employment, characterized by offering low-quality and low-paid jobs, is highly dependent on immigrant workers, in particular from Syria, since Lebanese population tends to refuse to take these jobs (ILO, 2015). According to ETF (2019c), in Palestine, the service sector was the sector that contributed most to GDP in 2017 (73%), followed by industry (22.5%) and agriculture (4.2%). Moreover, in 2017, the Palestinian service sector provided 63% of total jobs in the economy, followed by industry (30) and agriculture (7%) (ETF, 2019c). On the contrary, Morocco’s economy is more dependent on the agriculture sector in comparison to other MENA countries: it represented 13% of total GDP and accounted for 38% of total workforce in 2016 (ETF, 2019d). However, service sector maintained a principal position: it accounts for 29% and 40% of GDP and total employment, respectively, while industrial sector represented 29% and 21% of GDP and total workforce, respectively, in 2016 (ETF, 2019d).
Algeria and Libya are highly dependent on hydrocarbon sector which represents approx. 30% and 70% of GDP, respectively (ETF, 2019e; Appler & Lassassi, 2019). However, the hydrocarbon sector only contributes to 0.6% and 2% of total employment in Algeria and Libya, respectively (DTDA, 2020; ETF,
2014). In Algeria, the service sector provides the majority of jobs (59%), followed by industry (30%) and agriculture (10%) in 2017 (ETF, 2019e) and in Libya, the economic sectors that that accounts for the highest share of workers are education (30%), general administration (25%), agriculture and hunting (8%), wholesale and retail (7%), healthcare (5%) and lastly industry (3%) (Tantoush & Ibrahim Hmedan, 2018). On the other side, Israel presents the most diversified economy: 70% of GDP is contributed by the service sector, which is characterized by high levels of technological innovation and research, and 18% by the industrial sector, which mostly focus on high value-added activities and employs high skill workers (ETF, 2019a).
Occupation prospects
According to ILO (2016a), youth labour market transitions across MENA countries tend to be faster for high-skilled occupations, which demand qualified workers, than for low-skilled ad elementary occupations. Moreover, the World Economic Forum (2017) identified that jobs in the field of engineering, business development and consulting, as well as marketing and communications have increase their share while those occupations in health, education, personal and creative services have experienced an upward trend. Furthermore, the transition to a low carbon economy implies that green jobs will be highly required in the future, in particular in oil-gas producing countries but also in Israel, Palestine and Lebanon (World Bank, 2019). For instance, the World Bank (2019) states that a Health Safety Engineers (HSE) with experience in risk management and renewable energy production will be in very high demand.
In Jordan, according to CEDEFOP (2016), between 2000 and 2013, employment on occupations related to service and sale has more than doubled, high-skilled occupation only professionals have increase while those requiring basic education fall almost 75% workers. In Lebanon, ETF (2019b) points out to the fact that the high levels of migration of skilled workers, resulting in a shortage of qualified workforce, might encourage the expansion of low-value added and low productivity economic activities and occupation in the country. According to the GIZ (2016), the shortage of skilled workers with technical knowladge in the country is common in different economic activities, scuh as agriculture, construction (require plumbing and welding professions), health (physicians and nurses) as well as in the ITC and tourism sector (professionals with multilingual knowladge). Moreover, the ETF (2020) study on the agri- food sector in Morocco points out to occupations and new jobs that may play an important role in the future of the sector, such as environmental economist, nutrisionist engineer, manufacturing and packaging managers, and those related to data analysis. In Israel, the disruption of new technolgoies in the agri-tech sector implicates new demand on occupations and skills: multidisciplinary competences, IT profiles, and new jobs such as autonomous vehicle robotics drone architect, LED light expert, among others (ETF, 2020b). On the contrary, low-skilled occupations and high-skilled specialised occupations will tend to be substituted.
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